This is a Bits and Pieces article. These are smaller, less-researched ideas that aren’t complete enough to make a whole article or post about. This is a new thing I’m trying, and I hope to make more in the future if this one goes well.

So this is something that i’ve actually, legitimately been thinking about for at least a few years. I haven’t run this by anyone until now, and after doing a little bit of research for this piece, it has refined the idea, as well as gotten me to believe in it more firmly. I’m very curious to see what other gamers think.

My 3rd and 5th Theory is as follows:

“In a majority of popular video game series, the best and/or most popular game will either be the 3rd or the 5th entry in that series.”

To simplify this idea: think of a popular video game franchise, and then think of its greatest game. That game is probably either the third or the fifth entry in that franchise. 

I’d take it for a grain of salt too, if I were reading this for the first time. But the more you think about it, the more sense it makes. I’m a mid-level gamer; I know more than the average casual, but I’m not as absorbed in the community as the more experienced hobbyists. Over the years, I’ve tested this theory with a lot of the video game franchises I’m personally familiar with, and it holds up a large percentage of the time. I can’t exactly when or how I developed this theory, just that it’s been formed over years of comparing notes about the games I know and like the most. 

Let me give you some examples:

• “Grand Theft Auto V” is the fifth installment of the Grand Theft Auto video game series. It’s sold more copies than all other GTA games combined, is playable on three different console generations, and is the fourth highest grossing video game of all time
• “The Sims 3” is the third installment in the Sims series of video games. Though “The Sims 1” has sold more copies than it, The Sims 3 is widely regarded as the best game in the series, though this is widely debated.
• “The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim” is the fifth installment of the Elder Scrolls series, and has sold twice as much as the next highest-selling game in the franchise (The Elder Scrolls Online)
• “Saints Row: The Third” is the third installment of the Saints Row series. It’s preorder numbers surpassed Saints Row 2 by a factor of four, and the game’s success is said to have caused a big turnaround in its parent company, THQ.
• “Animal Crossing: New Horizons” is the fifth installment of the Animal Crossing series. It has sold about as many copies as all of the other main series games combined, and is among one of the biggest Nintendo Switch bestsellers
• “Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater 3” is the third installment of the Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater series. Though it appears that others have sold more copies, this one is still widely regarded as the best in the series.

Of course, this doesn’t work 100% of the time. A few exceptions I can think of are Final Fantasy, Pokemon, Mortal Kombat, and Super Smash Bros. I’d estimate that about 80-90% of the popular game series follow this rule.

I have a hypothesis as to why this is the case. When it’s the third game, it’s because the first game is used to introduce people to the series, and the second game is used to solidify the main themes, concepts and mechanics. When it’s the second game, it’s because the first four games generated enough revenue and exposure, so that the fifth game can attract a higher budget and more talented producers.

I hope to one day turn this into a more concise and well-researched theory, with more data and research put into it. This is mainly to introduce this theory, and to get feedback so I’ll know how to modify it later. I also want to do some research into the possible benefits that the results of such a study would produce, so it’ll be easier to justify spending the resources on completing it. Either way, you heard it here first, so if you see this anywhere else, know that it actually came from me.